Scale and polarisation in mobile

Ben Evans with a chart showing the huge spread between the various handset makers. As he points out, it’s curious to see just how cyclical e iPhone has become. Have we gotten to the point where even non-tech consumers know roughly when a new iPhone is coming, and they decide to delay a purchase for the next one? Or is it just that so many people got excited and moved into a 2 year contract roughly when one version of the iPhone was announced and they keep repeating their purchase as they come off contract? Or perhaps a mix of both?